RICHMOND, Virginia (AP) – For four years, nothing has rallied Democrats like the pressure to resign Donald Trump. Now they don’t know what to do without him.

Virginia Democrats are scrambling to avert disaster in the state governor’s race – the most competitive major election since Trump left the White House. The surprisingly tight contest revealed the depth of the party’s dependence on Trump as a message and motivator. Without him for many, and with the headwinds in Washington, Democratic officials privately fear losing their first statewide election in Virginia on Tuesday in more than a decade.

Public polls have shifted in the leadership of Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin in recent weeks, while Democrat Terry McAuliffe, former governor and close ally of President Joe Biden, struggled to energize his base as the approval ratings of Biden fall. Republicans, consumed by infighting and crisis while Trump was in power, are suddenly optimistic they can win in a state that Trump lost by 10 percentage points last year.

“Virginia is a very blue state – I don’t consider Virginia a purple state – so the fact that we’re so competitive says a lot about the state of our country and Biden’s popularity,” said the president of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel.

A loss in the Virginia gubernatorial race, long seen as an indicator for the midterm elections, would trigger utter panic among Democrats far beyond Virginia. The party is already wary of its chances in the elections that will decide control of the House, Senate and state houses next year.

Jaime Harrison, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, admitted that losing McAuliffe would be an “doomsday” scenario. But he argued that the Virginia Democrats would come forward and win a victory for McAuliffe.

“I’m not running with my hair on fire, not at this point,” he said.

Whatever the outcome, the race will be selected for clues about what resonated with voters – and what didn’t.

The politics surrounding Trump, who left office more than nine months ago, remains complicated. McAuliffe’s team believes he remains highly unpopular among the Democratic base, independents, and even some moderate Republicans in Virginia. As such, he should be a good motivator for McAuliffe’s coalition. But Trump’s absence from the spotlight, combined with voter fatigue and the lingering pandemic, appears to have diluted anti-Trump passions – at least for now.

Yet McAuliffe has spent the vast majority of his record-breaking fundraiser warning voters that his opponent, who has been endorsed by Trump but has kept his distance from him, is a “Trump contender.” McAuliffe’s closing TV commercials featured footage of the Jan. 6 Capitol uprising led by Trump supporters who believed the former president’s lies about a “stolen election.”

Youngkin created the opening for these attacks when he made “electoral integrity” the centerpiece of his run in the nomination contest and declined to say that Biden had been legitimately elected until then. that he has locked the appointment. Youngkin has shown a “disqualifying lack of leadership,” said U.S. Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger, defending McAuliffe’s decision to raise the issue.

“We cannot forget – and I will certainly never forget – that we had an insurgency on January 6 on the nation’s Capitol,” she said. “Literally, people are beating police officers with American flags under this notion of lie that the former president spat out and that people out loud, elected officials, have spread. “

But McAuliffe’s attacks on his opponent may have undermined the Democrat’s relatively low favorable ratings. He won the support of less than 50% of the electorate in almost every public poll this year.

Meanwhile, Youngkin did not play the role of an angry Trump loyalist.

A former private equity executive, he spent more than $ 20 million of his personal fortune on a month-long ad campaign that defined himself as a gracious suburban dad in a fleece waistcoat. He has not campaigned with Trump or with prominent Republicans, although it is not clear whether he will call Trump by phone on Monday. He often dodges questions on thorny political issues.

To connect with the party base, Youngkin took advantage of Conservatives’ frustrations with schools over pandemic policies and race and diversity education. It has benefited from a network of parent groups, some led by political professionals with ties to the GOP and the Trump administration, activated in key suburbs. He ran an ad featuring a mother and GOP activist who eight years ago led an effort to ban “Beloved,” the Pulitzer-winning novel by black Nobel Prize winner Toni Morrison. , classrooms.

McAuliffe calls it a “racist dog whistle,” an allegation Youngkin denied.

History plays against the Democrats, who control the legislative and executive powers in Virginia and Washington. Traditionally, the party that owns the White House almost always loses the Virginia governor’s race. McAuliffe himself was the first in 40 years to break this trend in 2013.

McAuliffe’s team points to Biden’s declining popularity, which has fallen close to Trump’s levels at this point in his presidency. Meanwhile, the Democratic-led Congress has failed to deliver on sweeping election promises as negotiations over a broad package of climate change and social safety net measures drag on. This week, Democrats dropped a popular proposal for paid family leave, disappointing many female Democrats in a critical constituency Virginia.

Disappointment aside, Democrats in Virginia say they are exhausted.

“We’ve had four years of high alert, coming out of COVID, coming out of lockdown. I think people were just living their lives and didn’t want to think about an election, ”said State Senator Jennifer McClellan, who ran against McAuliffe for the Democratic nomination.

A Republican presidential candidate has not carried the state since 2004. Census data shows the Democratic-leaning northern part of the state is growing, while GOP strongholds are losing population.

Fairfax County, which voted nearly 70% for Biden and is by far the most populous county in Virginia, has grown 6% to 1.15 million people over the past decade. It has also become a majority minority county. Meanwhile, in dark red southwest Virginia and along the southern state border, nearly every locality has lost population.

The trends, combined with a Democratic turn among suburban Republicans during Trump’s day, suggest Democrats would easily win on Tuesday if only they became their supporters. The early voting period, which ends on Saturday, has failed to attract the surge in voters in key areas Democrats were hoping for, however.

A McAuliffe vote exit event in the state’s conservative southern edge drew just a few dozen people to a church reception hall earlier in the week. One attendee, Martinsville Deputy Mayor Jennifer Bowles, said she hopes McAuliffe wins, but sees evidence of Trump’s strength where she lives.

“It’s not diminished. On the contrary, it feels like it’s getting stronger, ”Bowles said. “It scares me.”

McAuliffe campaigned alongside Vice President Kamala Harris and music artist Pharrell Williams on Friday night in Norfolk, drawing around 1,000 people, according to a state party spokesperson.

Three hours north, in rural Warrenton, more than 1,000 people attended a rally featuring Youngkin and a handful of state lawmakers.

“We have Terry on the run,” Youngkin told the electric crowd. “We are going to sweep Republicans across the Commonwealth and make a statement that will be heard around the world.”

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