Ditch Trevor Bauer and kiss Sonny Gray
Reds starter Sonny Gray is statistically better than Trevor Bauer.
There hasn’t been a more intriguing free agent in the market than Trevor Bauer in recent memory. Is it because of what he did on the pitch? Lifting the Cincinnati Redsvery first Cy Young? Yeah, that has a lot to do with it.
Bauer is one of the most controversial actors. If Bauer wears your team uniform, you love him. If he’s on the bump against you, that’s exactly the opposite emotion you feel radiating towards him.
Maybe it’s his personality. Bauer has his own brand, created mostly on his own. Seeing Bauer’s face is almost inevitable, and well done to him. I can’t remember a player who sold as well as Bauer.
Not only is Trevor Bauer marketing himself, he’s good at it. I have had a “send” shirt in my shopping cart from her online store for months now. Bauer not only sells you himself, he sells you his ideas which are also controversial.
Personally, I love Bauer, I think he’s great for baseball. I think he’s great for Cincinnati. He gives the Reds a level of exposure they haven’t gained in a long time. From his behind-the-scenes vlogging, to his interactions with fans, and his constant challenge to authority. Bauer constantly challenges others with his opinions.
Aside from being a stallion on the hill, Trevor Bauer seems like a normal dude who most fans feel they can relate to. This is another reason why I think fans are drawn to him. I could talk about Bauer all day, and I would hate to see Bauer in another uniform, but I think Reds fans, myself included, have to adjust to the idea of him putting on another uniform next season. .
At some point, if you’re the Cincinnati Reds, you need to redirect all the energy from the front office to what you have, instead of what you might have. Essentially, the front office just has to go ahead and assume that Trevor Bauer is almost gone… which he probably is.
What you have are Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray under the control of the team until 2023. They are two very good arms; weapons that I would bet almost every baseball team would love to add to their rotation.
Bauer worked extremely hard, and that success paid off for him in 2020. Let’s take a step back and take it with a grain of salt. What Bauer did in 2020 was not normal, not only was it not normal for him statistically, it was not a normal season at all.
Trevor Bauer is going to get a monster salary based only on 11 starts. Under normal circumstances, a pitcher gets his 11th start in the second month of the season. According to powerrankingsguru.com, Bauer also benefited from facing the lowest strength rating in all of baseball.
The reason why 2020 is simply a statistical anomaly can be supported by facts. A quick glance at Bauer’s stats line at FanGraphs will tell you everything you need to know. What Bauer did last season was not atypical of a Trevor Bauer season.
Bauer hits a lot of guys; it is a constant. It also typically eats between 170 and 200 innings, which is desirable in a starter. The only difference factor is the key stat that every professional or amateur analyst looks at, and that is the ERA.
Some younger statisticians would say that PLAR is not important and that it is a useless statistic. This is where I disagree. A pitcher’s job is not to allow runs, so for me that’s pretty important.
Bauer is a career guy who normally hovers around a 4.00 ERA, which isn’t that great, but it’s not a number you put $ 20-25 million on. The Reds must avoid embarking on a possible bidding war with Los Angeles and the New York Mets.
If the price is right, which it sure won’t, then I totally agree with the Reds bringing Bauer back. An organization is going to give Bauer a lot of money, and maybe that’s a mistake; the one the reds should avoid.
Sonny Gray, meanwhile, is a guy, like Bauer, who has also been around the neighborhood once or twice. Gray will only be worth around $ 20 million, however, but not one for two seasons. Gray has a very similar stat line to Bauer according to FanGraphs.
Gray sports a slightly lower ERA of Bauer’s 3.54 to 3.90. Sonny Gray also posted higher WAR at 18.8 versus Bauer’s 17.5. If two players were to be statistically considered almost completely equal 99 times out of 100, I take the player who costs half as much.
The biggest mistake the Cincinnati Reds could make would be to sign Trevor Bauer for a huge one-year contract based on the 2020 season. You can keep Gray around and divert the money the Reds would have given Bauer to dying. ‘other positions in need. It’s the movement that keeps Cincinnati competing in 2021.